Public evidence record

0xf908…0aaf

0xf9088bbb59b17bae4f5f930e9e0526539e220aaf

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-3.8%744 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-2.9%$56,060 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.37%679 pre-event fills

Settlement record

336-393-12Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−39.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 744 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -10.7% to +3.1%

744 closed positions · 831 taker fills · $56,060 deployed

Typical position $81 (median) · closing line value measured over 679 pre-event fills · 0% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$208

Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

Yes

entry 55¢ · -124now 57¢ · -135+2.2 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Esports550 closed222–316–11-8.2%
Soccer86 closed51–34-0.1%
Baseball56 closed31–24-3.2%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-19	South Dakota vs. Boise State: O/U 58.5football · totals	Over	won	53¢ · -113	$50	+44
2026-09-19	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Esport BERG (BO3) - Circuito Retake Playoffsesports · moneyline	Esport BERG	lost	9¢ · +1011	$26	−26
2026-09-19	George Kittle: Receptions O/U 3.5football · receptions	Over	won	51¢ · -104	$100	+96
2026-09-19	NC State vs. Vanderbilt: O/U 50.5football · totals	Under	lost	49¢ · +104