Public evidence record

Erickaguilar

0xfb20c7b499b536121fc3cbe8aa6256cbf2ca3b5c

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-1.7%2,448 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

+0.3%$652,796 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-1.48%631 pre-event fills

Settlement record

1316-561Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−50.5uDeepest peak-to-trough over 2,448 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -3.9% to +0.5%

2,448 closed positions · 6,068 taker fills · $652,796 deployed

Typical position $191 (median) · closing line value measured over 631 pre-event fills · 18% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

1 open · checked just now

Read from public settlement data, not self-reported. Prices are cents per $1 share, which is the implied chance, followed by the same price in American odds — one price written two ways, never a stake. Movement is how the market has priced this since they entered; it is not a prediction, and it is not advice.

value$225

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-22?

Yes

entry 76¢ · -321now 91¢ · -953+14.2 pts

Open

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Soccer1,141 closed620–289-1.6%
Tennis345 closed169–69-4.2%
Baseball344 closed173–77-5.1%
Basketball254 closed148–29-1.2%
Hockey197 closed116–47-2.3%
Football73 closed48–16-3.7%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

In this window: 45 sports · 55 non-sports · 0 unlabeled. Non-sports (Bitcoin ticks, politics, etc.) are excluded from the sports leaderboard on purpose.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETNon-sports	Up	won	96¢ · -2400	$100	+4
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ETNon-sports	Up	won	95¢ · -1900	$100	+5
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ETNon-sports	Up	won	91¢ · -996	$101	+9
2026-09-21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET