Public evidence record

TiredOwl

0xfd526e2248e1f8d93e7283481cfd3cf318a6aa25

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedNov 7, 2026

Source sync: Nov 7, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-13.8%1,108 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-6.7%$316,007 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.62%768 pre-event fills

Settlement record

483-601-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−107.9uDeepest peak-to-trough over 1,108 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -19.0% to -8.6%

1,108 closed positions · 1,467 taker fills · $316,007 deployed

Typical position $128 (median) · closing line value measured over 768 pre-event fills · 27% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball505 closed211–286-17.0%
Esports236 closed82–148–2-16.4%
Football154 closed75–73-6.6%
Soccer151 closed88–61+2.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-11-06	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)esports · map handicap	T1	won	65¢ · -186	$102	+52
2026-11-06	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winneresports · child moneyline	Dplus KIA	lost	16¢ · +525	$16	+6
2026-11-05	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winneresports · child moneyline	Dplus KIA	lost	35¢ · +186	$31	−31
2026-11-05	Derrick Henry: Rushing Yards O/U 69.5football · rushing yards	Over	lost