Public evidence record

TiredOwl

0xfd526e2248e1f8d93e7283481cfd3cf318a6aa25

Record anatomy

Know what this profile can prove.

Read the methodology

Evidence sourcePublic Polymarket data

Trades and settlements are ingested from the public market record, not self-reported.

Identity statusUnclaimed public record

The record is public; no ownership claim is attached yet.

Stats recomputedSep 21, 2026

Source sync: Sep 21, 2026.

Claim status and skill are different signals. Claiming a record will prove control of the wallet, not change its rank, tier, or numbers. Claim this wallet

Typical return

-14.3%920 closed · winsorized per-position

Bankroll return

-7.5%$259,071 deployed · longshots uncapped

Closing line value

-0.77%551 pre-event fills

Settlement record

394-507-2Wins · losses · pushes

Worst drawdown

−89.7uDeepest peak-to-trough over 920 closed

95% confidence interval on typical return: -19.9% to -8.6%

920 closed positions · 1,259 taker fills · $259,071 deployed

Typical position $127 (median) · closing line value measured over 551 pre-event fills · 29% of fills were market making

Two different returns, on purpose. Typical return is the equal-weight mean of per-position results after capping extreme longshot payouts (same series as the ranking t-stat) and shrinking toward the population mean when the sample is small. Bankroll return is total P&L ÷ total deployed — real dollars, including lottery tickets. Neither is a tip. Full methodology.

Currently holding

No open positions above $1 as of just now. This wallet is flat.

By sport

Where this record comes from. Each sport carries its own sample and is scored against the others in that sport, never against the overall board.

Baseball484 closed203–273-16.5%
Esports205 closed71–129–2-15.2%
Soccer151 closed88–61+2.1%

Sports with fewer than 30 closed positions are not listed — there is nothing to say about them yet. The full position log shows every market either way.

Position log

Every settled position in this page window, newest first. Entry price is what one $1 share cost, followed by that same price in American odds — one price, two notations, never a stake. Losses render exactly as wins do. Ranking only uses sports-classified markets; crypto and other non-sports can still appear here because the wallet traded them.

Settled	Market	Side	Result	Entry price	Cost	P&L
2026-09-20	Combo: Chargers — Raiders vs. Chargers + Seahawks — Seahawks vs. Cardinals + 49ers — Dolphins vs. 49ers + Jaguars — Spread: Broncos (-7.5) + Chiefs — Colts vs. Chiefsfootball · combo	—	lost	24¢ · +322	$500	−500
2026-09-20	Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)football · spreads	Chiefs	lost	58¢ · -138	$283	−283
2026-09-20	Combo: Panthers — Panthers vs. Falcons + Buccaneers — Browns vs. Buccaneers + Ravens — Saints vs. Ravens + Eagles — Eagles vs. Titansfootball · combo	—	lost	28¢ · +257	$500	−500
2026-09-20	Combo: Buccaneers — Browns vs. Buccaneers + 49ers — Dolphins vs. 49ers + Ravens — Saints vs. Ravens + Bears — Vikings vs. Bears + Eagles — Eagles vs. Titans